Maqṣūr: الْعَصَا ends in an alif, so all three case vowels are estimated.
Manqūṣ: الْقَاضِي ends in a yāʾ preceded by kasra. Nominative and genitive are estimated, while accusative fatḥa is visible.
Core contrast: maqṣūr has three estimated endings; manqūṣ has two estimated endings and one visible one.